Who will win the A.I. Arms Race?

Short Answer, Google.

Why?

First we have to define win , it’s not just who makes the most money, that’s a business decision. It’s who will have to the highest engagement and largest audience.

To put some perspective, Microsoft’s ChatGPT is more advanced than Google’s Bard at the moment. It’s more creative, more nuanced, and displays a greater understanding of language. But every tech giant will have the resources to create their version, just like the current smart phone market. Bard will catch up and when that happens it will come down to significant competitive advantages between the companies.

In the short term the market will congregate around the first model to be the most “correct”. This is what current iterations are trying to achieve. Models are going to great lengths to be factually correct and extremely PC to appeal to a broad audience. As a marketer I know that’s not actually what people want. When it comes to search, research, and intent what people really want is personalization. Let me explain with a quick analogy.

Should you put beans in Chili?

There is a right answer, but that is going to differ between audiences. Today’s A.I. is going to try and be balanced & boring.

“That’s a matter of personal choice… here is some pro’s and cons… Blah blah blah“

Now if I ask A.I. for the best chili recipe, it’s trying to be helpful and it spits out a basic recipe… with beans…

The market doesn’t want an oracle to answer all of humanities questions like everyone seems to think. We want a personal assistant that learns and knows ME. A better A.I. is one that when I order a 5 on the Pad Thai, the waitress says no, that’s not for Americans.

That’s why Google is going to win. It has a massive advantage in customer data. Consumers are going to use Bard every day, all the time.

What’s next?

A.I. is infant stage right now. It’s still learning (heh). Each model is going to work towards being more broadly palatable and improving it’s ability to understand and respond accurately. Once this becomes more or less negligible here is what is going to happen.

The models will begin to shift focus to their core organizations primary revenue streams.

Adobe’s already got the right idea with Firefly. They are going all in on how A.I. can enhance their services, with text to image generation and inserting it into their current workflows and services (see my post about Firefly here), not trying to create a new one. Other Big Tech will follow this model eventually.

Microsoft’s GPT will integrate and connect within it’s competitive advantage, the workplace. It’s going to rapidly solve menial tasks in Office 365, and become a virtual assistant. It will digest and respond to emails. Summarize meetings and send notes. It will run training and create task lists for efficiency, and please dear Lord fill out my timesheets for me.

Google’s Bard will be consumer centric providing a personalized portal to our interactivity with the internet. What I mean by this is it will make recommendations on things to do personalized to your life stage and interests. If I’m single and 20 that list should look different than someone in their 30’s with two kids. It will know “David likes deals” if he is asking where to take his family maybe I suggest one where kids eat free.

Through all this Amazon & Alexa have been astonishingly quiet. But where can I promise they will innovate? In Home connectivity and delivery.

Will things get wild and fun? Yes. Will I be able to have a conversation with Darth Vader about who the mavericks should sign in the offseason? Probably. Who will dominate market share? Google.